Sunday, 27 January 2013

Weekly market analysis- RBI policy to throw positive surprise to markets

 

 

 


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Weekly market analysis- Sensex and Nifty to trend higher and ten year bond yields to fall post RBI policy on 29th of January 2013   

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Weekly market analysis week ended 25th January 2013

Equity market analysis- RBI rate cuts will drive equities higher

RBI is expected to cut the repo rate by 25bps in its policy review on the 29thof January 2013. Equity markets have factored in a 25bps rate cut with the Sensex and Nifty closing last week at the highest levels seen in over two years. However equity markets have not factored in a 50bps rate hike by the RBI (  Read Why RBI will cut repo rate by 50bps  ). A 50bps rate hike will drive equities sharply higher.

Read full analysis

Fixed Income market analysis-Bond yields will fall only if there is a 50bps repo rate cut

Bond markets will take down bond yields if the RBI cuts the repo rate by 50bps. The yield on the 8.15% 2022 bond can fall by 25bps on a 50bps rate cut, as the market will then factor in more rate cuts in 2013. Markets will also take the 50bps rate cut by the RBI as a thumbs up signal by the Central Bank to the Government on its efforts on fiscal consolidation.

Read full analysis

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Arjun Parthasarathy

Editor: Investors are Idiots.com

www.investorsareidiots.com

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Information herein is believed to be reliable but the editor of Investors are Idiots.com Arjun Parthasarathy does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions and estimates are subject to change without notice. This information is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The financial markets are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved. Unauthorized copying, distribution or sale of this publication is strictly prohibited. The author of the articles may have investments in instruments that are the subject of the articles.

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