.: Technical view by Nooresh on Sensex/Stocks/Commodities

Thursday 17 April 2014

Technical view by Nooresh on Sensex/Stocks/Commodities

Analyse India Big Value 2.0

Posted: 17 Apr 2014 12:01 PM PDT

What do you get in Big Value Service?

-> 30-50 investment ideas in a year.

-> 2-4 investment ideas in a month.

-> Companies covered will be with good fundamentals, decent managements.

-> In most cases they would either be at a technical turnaround point or getting into a new uptrend.

-> Strategy would be to deploy equally into all companies (max 5% in one) and keep holding for a period of 1-2 years with partial profit booking to increase comfort in holding for long term. Ideally the holding period would be higher till the time the stock is highly overbought or overvalued with updates continuing on the stock all through the year.

-> The accumulation of stocks would be done over the next 1 year so one will be investing systematically and increasing allocation to equity in steps.

-> We would be focusing on companies which have good management record, decent dividends or growth so that the drawdown in case of a bad market trend is not huge. Also money would be deployed over a period of 1 year volatility would reduce.

-> In the long run a diversified stock portfolio can beat the benchmark index returns by a big margin. For example in a study we did for a random portfolio of stocks, outperformed the Nifty/Midcap Index returns over a 10 year period. This period had two rounds of bull/bear cycle. But going into good companies can reduce capital loss in the interim.

-> We do not focus on catching multibaggers or 10 baggers but it is about finding good risk-reward entries in quality stocks. Pleasant surprises are welcome.

-> There are no promised returns but the target is 20-30% annual returns along with beating the benchmarks by a good margin.

Also there will be a lot of other market views, additional research which could be extra apart from the above recommendations.

Past Performance is not a guarantee of the future but definitely is a source of learning.

So here is a quick review of the service.

We started this service with a subscription period of October-December 2012.

The initial picks took a bad hit in the short term because of difficult business scenarios and difficult market conditions. Also the Periodic Call Auction later on led to a continued downtrend in midcap/smallcap index.

We reduced or almost took a break in new recommendations in the period between Feb-July due to the solid downtrend.

Seeing the bottoming out and change in trend we increased the number of recommendations and also advised adding freshly into some of the quality stocks (Ex. Nilkamal initially recommended at 200-220 fell to 100 where it was added more strongly is now at 215 and all set to get into a new zone in coming months)

Also quite a few trading recommendations were advised with short term view and gave super returns.

As of today we continue to hold most of the recommended companies with some partial profit booking and will keep reviewing the same with a long term view. We believe the accumulated portfolio is now standing at an inflection point of further returns and some of them can outperform in a big way. So the current prices and prices 6 months down the line could be much better.

We may even repeat some of the conviction companies in our Big Value 2.0. Also we will continue to keep updating on companies to subscribers of Big Value 1.

This BSE SMALLCAP INDEX chart would explain the strategy.

What we learnt and what we would like to do?

-> Initial focus was on smallcap companies. Many of them take a longer time to get re-rated.

(Focus on more of midcap and even large cap companies)

-> Keep reviewing the situation and accept when you go wrong or even book some profits. ( The biggest dud we had was CEBBCO which initially went up 20% and then fell like a rock by 50% )

(Book losses when the reasons change)

-> Use a lot of technical analysis and even be ready to get in at higher levels if convinced.

(We skipped a lot of companies as they had already moved a lot or did not act on when stocks turned around from bottoms)

(Enter into technical breakouts, bottoming out and even in momentum if it's a good company and above all don't fight the trend)

We hope that we would better our performance with Big Value 2.0.

How much do we charge and how do clients need to go about it?

-> The charges are Rs 18000 for a year.

-> We will continue to research honestly and recommend to the best of our ability and we do not claim or promise super normal returns.

-> This is meant for long term investors who have a horizon of 1-3 years and do not get scared by a 20-30% drop in a good company.

-> Even traders can deploy some part of their capital into this portfolio with a long term view.

-> Money is to be allocated over a period of 6-12 months so investors will need to be patient and expect conservative returns. Let me repeat this is not for short term trading ideas.

-> As a disclosure we would be investing personally and for clients also into the recommended companies post the recommendation.

To make a payment please use bank account details below.

The last date to subscribe is 31^st May. We may close the subscription earlier also as it is on a first come first serve basis.

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